Roy Morgan Senate Poll - Great news for the Greens

A great result for the Greens. Crunching the numbers into the Senate calaculator on the ABC election website gives the Greens a seat in each of the states (plus ACT)

The full result is here

In October, support for the Coalition in the Senate was 35.5% (up 2% from September). During the same period, support for the ALP was 44.5% (down 2%), the latest Morgan Senate Poll finds.

Nationally, support for the Greens is 9% (down 0.5%). Among the other minor parties support for the Australian Democrats is 3.5% (up 1%), Family First 2% (unchanged), One Nation 1% (unchanged), and support for Other Parties and Independent Candidates is 4.5% (down 0.5%).

Support for Pauline Hanson in Queensland has gone backwards, with Ms. Hanson polling 5.5% of the Queensland vote during October, down 2% from September.

Results by State:

• In New South Wales: ALP 47.5% (down 2.5% since September), L-NP 34.5% (up 2.5%), Greens 8.5% (down 0.5%), Democrats 2.5% (unchanged), CDP 2% (up 1%), Family First 1.5% (unchanged), One Nation 1% (down 0.5%), Other 2.5% (unchanged).

• In Victoria: ALP 45% (down 3%), L-NP 35.5% (up 1.5%), Greens 10.5% (unchanged), Democrats 3.5% (up 1.5%), Family First 2.5% (up 1%), One Nation 0.5% (unchanged), Other 2.5% (down 1%). This would most likely result in three Victorian ALP Senators, two L-NP Senators, and one position determined by the allocation of preferences (most probably a Greens Senator or another L-NP Senator);

• In Queensland: ALP 40% (down 0.5%), Liberal 32.5% (up 2.5%), Greens 6.5% (up 0.5%), Pauline Hanson 5.5% (down 2%), Democrats 5.5% (up 1%), Nationals 4.5% (up 0.5%), Family First 2.5% (down 0.5%), One Nation 0.5% (down 0.5%), Other 2.5% (down 1%). This would most likely result in three Queensland ALP Senators, two Liberal Senators, and one position determined by the allocation of preferences (most probably another Liberal Senator, or a Senator from the National Party, Greens, or Democrats);

• In South Australia: ALP 45.5% (down 0.5%), L-NP 32.5% (down 1%), Greens 6% (down 1%), Democrats 4% (up 1%), Family First 4% (down 0.5%), One Nation 1.5% (up 0.5%), Other 6.5% (up 1.5%). This would most likely result in three South Australian ALP Senators, two L-NP Senators, and one position determined by the allocation of preferences (most probably another Liberal Senator, or a Senator from the Greens, or independent Nick Xenophon);

• In Western Australia: Liberal 42% (unchanged), ALP 39% (up 2%), Greens 10.5% (up 1%), Family First 1.5% (unchanged), Nationals 1.5% (unchanged), Democrats 1.5% (down 1.5%), CDP 1% (unchanged), One Nation 1% (down 0.5%), Other 2% (down 1%). This would most likely result in three Western Australian Liberal Senators, two ALP Senators, and one position determined by the allocation of preferences (most probably a Greens Senator or another ALP Senator);

• In Tasmania: ALP 45.5% (up 0.5%), Liberal 30.5% (up 0.5%), Greens 20.5% (up 3%), Family First 1% (down 1.5%), Other 2.5% (down 2%). This would most likely result in three Tasmanian ALP Senators, two Liberal Senators, and one Greens Senator; and

• In ACT: ALP 48% (unchanged), L-NP 24.5% (down 3%), Greens 20% (up 4.5%), Democrats 5% (unchanged), Other 2.5% (down 1.5%). This would most likely result in one ACT ALP Senator, and either an L-NP or Greens Senator.

Breakdown:
NSW - 3 Labor, 2 Coalition, 1 Greens
Victoria - 3 Labor, 2 Liberal, 1 Green
Queensland - 3 Labor, 2 Liberal, 1 Greens
S.A - 3 Labor, 2 Liberal, 1 Greens
W.A - 3 Liberal, 2 Labor, 1 Greens
Tasmania - 3 Labor, 2 Liberal, 1 Greens
A.C.T - 1 Labor, 1 Greens